Monday, December 5, 2011

Does Cain's Endorsement Matter?

With Cain about to publicly endorse Newt Gingrich, one has to wonder. Does it help? And, could it even be a liability?

The first thing is the liability issue. Cain's poll numbers dropped from a high of 26% to 8.8% last week at the time of his campaign suspension. Although that 8.8 was something, it should not be confused as necessarily stronger than Santorum's 6% and Huntsman's 4%.

Cain was a sinking ship, and his momentum was spiraling downhill. I'd take a healthy 4% from Hunstman which is on the slight and steady upswing than I would a toxic 8.8% from a dreadful candidate who suspended his campaign just to stop the bleeding.

So no, I don't think Cain's "vaunted" endorsement matters much. I think Cainanites are going to join whomever they want, regardless of where Cain points to. For instance, if Cain were to endorse Romney, no one would follow him. The 8.8% are going to a combination of Gingrich or Santorum.

The next question is if Cain's endorsement is a liability. Think Al Gore famously refusing Bill Clinton's campaigning help- though he ultimately regretted it. Clinton, though dogged by extramarital activities, was actually an intelligent, knowledgeable, and popular politician. Cain shares the extramarital activities, but was clueless in terms of policy, and his popularity is extremely divisive. While his endorsement probably isn't a liability, I don't think it carries any weight.

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