New Iowa polls show Ron Paul in a virtual tie with Newt Gingrich at around 21%. Romney is in 3rd with 16%.
The significance of this poll isn't just the numbers. It's the type of candidate. Out of all of the current 7 candidates, which has the most zealous and enthusiastic backers? Certainly not Romney, and probably not Gingrich. One could argue Santorum, but he's a non factor. Ditto for Perry, Bachmann, and Huntsman.
The answer is Ron Paul. If polls show him within even as much as 4-5 percentage points behind 1st place in Iowa just a day before the election, then he can very well win. Paul has a furious backing from near fanatical supporters, and one can be sure that they will indeed show up to vote on a freezing cold Thursday night.
Remember, polling means calling up some random Iowan and asking who they support. The person might answer Mitt Romney. But come January 3rd, that same Romney supporter might eat too much for dinner, find a great movie on TV, and settle in for the night, with little interest in braving the cold to vote for Romney, the same candidate that he or she supports.
The same cannot be said for Ron Paul supporters.
hahaha good call with the issue of random polling, i like it
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