Ron Paul Officially Takes Iowa Lead

"An Iowa Stat/Gazette/KCRG has Ron Paul in first place with 27.5 percent of 333 likely caucusgoers among the 740 registered Republicans and 200 registered independents contacted by ISU. That’s up from 20.4 percent in an ISU/Gazette/KCRG poll in November. He’s followed closely by former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich whose support increased from 4.8 percent to 25.3 percent. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney came in at 17.5 percent, up from 16.3"

This poll contains so many unknowns that it is hard to quantify it. Generally speaking, when someone says they will support Ron Paul, they will support Ron Paul. No matter the weather on January 3rd, Ron Paul supporters will be out and about in droves and placing their votes for the 76 year old Congressman.

However, there is a snag with this latest poll- 200 out of the 940 respondents were independents. It has long been rumored that in this particular election cycle, many democrats have registered as independents and/or Republicans, in order to voice support and ultimately vote for Ron Paul in the primaries, with the intention of going back to Democratic for the general Presidential election.

For that reason, Ron Paul's surging poll numbers could be extremely unreliable. For the zeal of his supporters, he might blow Gingrich and Romney out of the water. But for the trickery of secret Democrats, Paul's big lead might be one big sham.