Romney, 3-2=1

It was just a week ago that Romney could claim victory in Iowa, New Hampshire, and a clear path to an eventual victory in South Carolina. That's 3 states.

Things change rather quickly. Santorum was announced the true Iowa winner, and Gingrich has definitively passed Romney in SC polls. That leaves New Hampshire with his 1 state victory.

Why did all this happen? A combination of the following:

1) Romney was too quick to claim victory in Iowa. Soon after the supposed 8 vote victory, there were numerous anecdotes of vote-tally mistakes, and Santorum's camp kept quietly maintaining that they believed they won. I think Santorum should have been more vocal about this, because even if he did get the Iowa victory, the momentum has long vanished. No one cares about Iowa anymore. Romney's initial Iowa momentum already bolstered his NH victory.

2) Romney's tax problems. I have no problem with Romney demurring on releasing his tax returns. But at least come up with a clear cut, forceful response! When asked if he would release them in the first SC debate, Romney fairly answered that traditionally most candidates released them in April. Then in the second SC debate, he strangely responded "maybe" when asked again if he would release them. It's one thing for him to refuse to release them, but its another to waffle. Romney cannot afford to waffle on anything these days.

3) Rick Perry dropped out and endorsed Gingrich. I'd say out of Perry's 5% polling numbers, 4% went to Gingrich and the other 1% to Santorum.

4) Sarah Palin endorsed Gingrich, kind of. While she didn't stand up and make a speech, she quietly stated that if she lived in SC, she would vote for Gingrich. Romney should have tried harder to get Palin on his team, but much like Gore ignored Clinton for short sighted reasons, I believe Romney figured Palin too toxic a figure to recruit to his team. Also, it could be that Palin endorsed Newt because she knows she could get a position in his government, whereas with Romney that would never happen.

5) Gingrich got a mega-standing ovation in the most recent debate. Gingrich has had plenty of debate moments before, and I still think his best line yet was his response to Romney accusing him of being in Washington/Government for over 25 years- "The only reason you haven't been in government as long as I have is because you lost to Ted Kennedy in 1984." Though Gingrich's absolute obliteration of moderator John King was more memorable.