White House Carnival: Politics for the Uninterested: February 2012

What Santorum can do to overtake Romney:

1) Refer to Romney as "McCain 2.0''

One of the reasons why Romney eked out a Michigan victory despite a 2nd mini-Santorum surge in the last two days was that voters expressed concerns over Santorum's electability. It has become almost common knowledge that a very right wing candidate such as Santorum is a much harder candidate to elect than Romney, a moderate.

Santorum has publicly denounced this notion, by referring to McCain's loss in 2008 as proof that nominating a moderate is far from a guarantee. Santorum is right- there is a reason why he is currenly neck and neck with a man who has spent over $30 million so far (Super PAC included). Santorum has galvanized the Right. And I do not use the term 'galvanize' lightly. In 2008, Huckabee 'galvanized' the Right, but how long did that last? Sure Huckabee got a few delegates, but he was essentially finished after Iowa. Santorum, however, has had more staying power and now has 4 states under his belt with Super Tuesday looming. Lets remember that Super Tuesday is a rural show, and Santorum is poised to do well.

What Santorum needs to do is drive home the McCain 2.0 aspect. He needs to remind the conservatives that nominating Moderate Mitt will leave scores of conservatives at home. Romney doesn't excite the base at all. Santorum has indeed benefited from that, but he needs to convince that particular pocket of voters who hesitate at the prospect of a Santorum nomination as iffy on a national scale. Santorum must prove that he is not iffy on a national scale. He needs to show that his nomination will bring out scores of conservative, rural, rust belt voters who have stayed home during McCain's run, and will likely stay home during Romney's 2nd lap. The argument that the hate for Obama is stronger than the disdain for Romney has never been proven.

Santorum needs to start referring to Romney as "McCain 2.0, sans military experience, political background, personality, and character".

Santorum needs to show voters that Romney is simply a very poor man's version of McCain, albeit with far less credentials. In essence, McCain was the perfect candidate; war hero, jovial personality, respected throughout Washington, and solid, consistent political background. Romney has none of that. If Santorum can continue to paint Romney as a very poor McCain redux-- the same McCain who soundly lost in 2008, voters might begin to realize that Mitt's moderation might not pan out in a general election.

2) Don't shy away from the 18 point loss

One of Santorum's sticking points has been his 18 point loss in the Pennsylvania 2006 Senate race. He has responded adequately in debates by saying that he knew he was going to lose, but he stood up for his beliefs in a liberal environment. That's honorable, but not sticky enough. For this argument to stick in voters' minds, Santorum needs to consistently remind voters that Romney was in a very similar situation after his 4 years of Governor, but instead of running again in a likely loss, he hightailed it out of Massachusetts. Santorum needs to remind voters that if Romney wouldn't stand up for his supposed conservative beliefs in Massachusetts, how in the world will he be expected to do that on a national scale?

3) Offer Gingrich a position

I know that the media has been hesitant to write off Gingrich for the 3rd time, but let's be honest here, it doesn't look bright. Mainly because Santorum's surge has pretty much crystallized him into the official anti-Romney, leaving Gingrich on the sidelines for good this time. Yes, Newt did get a new cash infusion from Sheldon Adelson, but the $5 million or so will only be enough for 1 state, a la South Carolina. And judging by his Super PAC's performance in Florida, Gingrich has a dim future. At this point, it seems that most of that money will have to go into Georgia to protect Newt's home turf. Now I'm sure that Santorum would be weary of having Gingrich in his Cabinet, but offering him a position of, oh I don't know, Secretary of State might work. This way Gingrich could turn into a scathing attack dog against Romney and even Paul, and not hurt Santorum, because it wouldn't be publicly known that the two sides have struck a deal.

Santorum may be reluctant to include Gingrich in a possible Government, but he needs to realize that the numbers are too close to gamble with. Assuming that 80% of Gingrich supporters would go to Santorum's side, Michigan would have gone to Santorum. That would have pushed Santorum into full-fledged frontrunner status. And even though Santorum had no business losing by just 3 percentage points, a loss is a loss.

4) Challenge Romney to a 1 on 1 debate

The last debate wasn't too kind to Santorum, one of his few as a frontrunner. Now that Santorum has seen Mitt's teeth up close and personal, sitting down nonetheless, he knows how to respond to debate attacks in the future. Gone will be the damaging lawyerly informational responses to each Romney volley. Santorum will fight fire with fire. The draw of a 1 on 1 debate is that it will exclude the still-unpredictable Gingrich, as well as Romney's security officer, Ron Paul, who has taken on the surprising role of chief attack dog toward both Newt and Rick.

However, it may not be enough to simply issue a challenge. Post-Michigan, Romney has regained his frontrunner status by the slimmest of numbers. But, a frontrunner is a frontrunner, and no frontrunner would ever agree to a debate, lest they inflict themselves with possible negative attacks.

This debate, however, can be accomplished through directive #5:

5) Bait Romney: Where's Waldo

As Rick Perry brilliantly showed, Romney can be baited into saying or doing something damaging. If someone like Perry can cause an intelligent, well coiffed man such as Romney to unravel on a public stage, then there is hope for the remaining candidates. Again, however, baiting is very difficult without a public debate stage. That is why through advertising, interviews, speeches, town hall meetings, and robocalls, Santorum can unleash a very baiting prerogative: Where's Waldo?

Before you assume this is some silly, juvenile ad campaign, keep in mind what needs to be driven home here. Romney's biggest weakness is also his most vague and hard to pinpoint: His lack of core. His aloofness. His nebulous past. The reason why Romney has skirted so many arguments against his character is due to his organization and money, but also to his candidates lack of artistic touch.

Why hasn't anyone been able to paint Romney the same way Kerry was painted in 2004? Romney is essentially a Kerry redux, in terms of personality and aloofness. These damning ingredients need to be molded together to form a lasting impression, much like Kerry's wind-sailing, knowledge of French, and swift boat veteran attacks. Those were the three things that stuck in voter's heads that caused Kerry to be painted as a flip-flopper.

Romney has emerged relatively unscathed in the character department due to a lack of creativity on his opponents' behalf. That can easily change. By using a silly, childish metaphor such as Where's Waldo, voters will immediately have a mental picture to tack on Romney- a canvas of sorts to capture the paint that has been unsuccessfully lobbed at him until now. Here's how:

"Much like in the children's game Where's Waldo, we have no idea where Mitt Romney is. Where is he right now? I'm not sure. He might be in his Utah residence, and if not there, in his Massachusetts mansion. Or he could be at the track with his Nascar owner buddies. Or maybe he's in one of his wife's 5 Cadillacs? Now I wonder, where was he in-
1983? On a 12 hour road trip to Ontario in the family station wagon, with dog Seamus tied to the roof.
1988? Stripping down companies and selling them off for Bain Capital.
1994? Becoming anti-abortion in order to run against Ted Kennedy.
2003? Raising taxes on gun licenses in Massacheusets.
2004? Raising taxes on gasoline at 2 cents per gallon.
2006? Putting the finishing touches on Romneycare, the blueprint for Obamacare.

An ad showing this type of blithe and almost unfair attack on Romney is what Santorum needs to embrace. If Romney can get away with steamrolling each opponent of his with negative ads, why can't Santorum? It's time to get with the program.

Rick Santorum is no debate-slouch. He has an answer for everything, and until now, had yet to have been caught up in a gotcha type moment.

The problem is, a gotcha moment wasn't needed in order to disarm the conservative former Senator. Romney was smart enough to let Santorum get twisted up in his own words, regardless if they were correct. Santorum may have provided sound logic, but it came at a cost of sounding long winded, verbose, and frankly, guilty.

This is probably where Santorum's attorney background came to hurt him. If the debate had been before a judge, Santorum would have probably won. A judge wouldn't have minded hearing Santorum say the word "earmark" over 10 times, because it was simply part of his defense. The same could not be said for the raucous GOP crowd, who justifiably didn't enjoy watching a former Senator get tangled up in toxic political and legal jargon.

While Romney has mastered the art of the debate by now, knowing which soundbytes work, which attacks are worth defending, and which keywords not to say, Santorum is the opposite. Though arguably more intelligent and knowledgeable, Santorum couldn't resist passing up each and every knock that Romney laid on him, even when it was worthwhile to lay off and maybe counter attack. Each argument that Santorum defeated in a technical manner came at a Pyrrhic cost, as the audience either couldn't keep up or simply tired of hearing a seemingly guilty man argue his way to the truth.

There are many who say that Romney is going to come out of this GOP nomination process as a battered nominee. But after 20 debates, Romney won the final 3, all of which included Gingrich, arguably the best debater of the bunch. Battered and bruised? Maybe. But it comes with progress. Obama may be practicing behind closed doors with his debate coaches, but Romney has just finished twenty nationally televised debates. The experience alone certainly counts for something, and may provide a Kevlar-like protection for Romney as he heads into the national contest coming this Fall.

Additionally, each Romney attack has been exhausted. Bain Capital? Check. The dog strapped to the roof of the car? Double check. Paying only a 15% tax rate? No problem there. Accounts in the Cayman Islands? Didn't seem to bother too many. The great thing about a drawn out nomination process is transparency. Romney has been vetted down to his core, if he even has one.